Advice to Republicans: How to Win the White House in 2016

25 Oct

The TOP (Terry On Politics) Blog – Sunday, October 25, 2015 (Blog #2)

First the advice: If you are a Republican and you want a conservative Republican to win the White House in 2016, here is what you need to do: Make sure that Governor John Kasich of Ohio becomes the nominee, and make sure that he picks Marco Rubio (or someone very similar) as his running mate. That’s it.

Why? Because after the Benghazi Select Committed gifted Secretary Hillary Clinton with many hours of free and incredibly effective pro-Clinton advertising on October 22, the options of the Republican party for winning the Presidential election in 2016 have narrowed dramatically. More specifically, the only Republican candidate in the field who now has any chance of overcoming what the Benghazi Committee did that night is one who knows Washington well enough to counter the advantage they gave Secretary Clinton. It has to be one real insider knowledge, with real political chops, and one who is capable of real debate with Secretary Clinton. That narrow the field down very quickly to Governor Kasich, the one Republican who can for example claim to have balanced the federal budget and then pull out real-world proof that he’s not just making up the claim. The Republican Party will need that kind of solid foundations when they go in to debate Hillary Clinton.

So Republicans (I am not one), hear me: If you pick any other route, if pick any other nominee, you will see Secretary Hillary Clinton (or possibly Bernie Sanders) become President. Your odds are only about 50/50 even if you do pick John Kasich. But those odds will fall to single digits if you choose anyone else as your nominee, especially the current leader Donald Trump.


How can I say such things? I’m no talking head on TV, analyzing and re-analyzing each day’s news as if somehow, amazingly, that particular day’s news is more critical to the future than anything else that has ever happened. I have no experience in that kind of talky-talk. I’m not even an advocate for either party in this context. Instead, I just see an interesting problem, one to which I believe I can apply some experience I’ve gained over the years.

My job for the last ten years has instead been largely about predicting the future. It ain’t easy.

More specifically, I’ve spend years assessing how innovative new products and ideas could change society in unexpected and even dramatic ways. Understanding a new idea or radical technology is just the start, since how that idea interacts with the world around it is often the most baffling part of the equation. Good ideas die and bad ones thrive, more often than you might think and often for reasons that can be amazingly opaque.

Yet the future is not without its patterns and paths of lesser resistance. In fact, it is often a bit like an uncut diamond, rough in form and difficult to judge. Yet if it can be assessed correctly and struck in just the right fashion, it often can split along well-defined planes that lock the future into clearly defined paths.

And so it has struck me: The political impacts of unique individual are fundamentally not all that different in terms of future impacts from the impacts of unique technologies. Like technologies, people and components of politics can be very complex and opaque. Yet those impacts also have their planes of leverage and lesser resistance. As with diamonds, sometimes it is the application of just the right force at just the right angle that can lead to a clear outcome. What that force and angle are depends critically on the shape, strengths, and flaws of the gem that is being cut.

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